XRP Price Rises as Polymarket ETF Approval Likelihood Reaches 80%

The price of XRP has experienced a notable rally, increasing by 50% from its lows in February, reaching $2.78 on Friday, marking its highest point this month. The rally comes amidst growing optimism that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may approve a spot XRP ETF later this year.

According to Polymarket, a prediction market, the odds of an XRP ETF approval have surged to 80%, with over $37,000 in volume recorded. Polymarket’s odds have shown a strong track record of accuracy in past events, such as predicting the outcome of the U.S. presidential election.

Multiple firms, including Grayscale, CoinShares, WisdomTree, 21Shares, Canary, and Bitwise, have filed for a spot XRP ETF. Analysts believe that the current SEC leadership, under Paul Atkins, is more likely to be open to these applications than the previous SEC chair Gary Gensler. The SEC has already acknowledged XRP ETF filings by Grayscale, marking a key step toward a possible approval.

The approval of an XRP ETF would be a significant milestone for the cryptocurrency and could drive further adoption and institutional investment.

Alongside the rise in the price of XRP, tokens within the XRP Ledger ecosystem have also posted strong gains. XRP Army, for example, jumped by 26% in the last 24 hours, with other tokens such as XPmarket, BearXRPL, and DROP seeing gains of over 18%. Sologenic and Coreum have also seen significant price increases this month. This broader momentum in the XRP ecosystem is fueling the positive sentiment and supporting the price surge of XRP.

Looking at XRP’s technical chart, the price has experienced some fluctuation this year, following a major rally in November. After a drop to $1.8012 last week, XRP quickly rebounded to its current level of $2.78. A hammer-like candlestick pattern has formed, which is typically a bullish reversal signal, indicating that the market may be entering a recovery phase.

However, XRP’s price is approaching the overshoot zone of the Murrey Math Lines, a technical indicator that suggests potential resistance. This indicates that there may be some upward limitations in the short term.

Additionally, Wyckoff distribution patterns have been observed, suggesting that XRP could enter a potential markdown phase, where prices may decline as holders sell off their positions.

For XRP to continue its bullish momentum and confirm further gains, it will need to break above its previous high of $3.40, which was reached in 2022. A breakout above this level could signal the start of a more sustained rally. Until then, the price might face some resistance, and it will be important to watch for signs of consolidation or a pullback.

The XRP price surge has been driven by the growing expectations that the SEC will approve an XRP ETF, coupled with strong performance across the XRP Ledger ecosystem. While there are technical signs suggesting potential resistance at higher levels, XRP’s bullish pattern and the broader market sentiment indicate that it could continue to rise, particularly if it breaks through key resistance levels.

With the approval of an XRP ETF remaining a highly anticipated event, the coming months could be crucial for the price of XRP, with its potential to break through the $3.40 resistance mark determining whether the bullish trend can be sustained. However, investors should be aware of the risks of a potential price decline if market conditions shift.