The odds of Solana ETF approval by July 2025 have surged on Polymarket

The odds of a spot Solana (SOL) exchange-traded fund (ETF) being approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) have risen significantly, with Polymarket data showing the likelihood increasing to 71%. This is a notable jump from 58% earlier this week and 50% last month.

The rising probability of approval is partly attributed to the incoming presidency of Donald Trump and his planned nomination of Paul Atkins as SEC chair. Trump has also started forming a crypto council, with key figures like Bo Hines as executive director and David Sacks, a former PayPal executive, designated as “crypto czar.” Investors appear to believe that Atkins will adopt a more crypto-friendly approach compared to the current SEC leadership under Gary Gensler, who previously rejected Solana ETFs, claiming the cryptocurrency was an unregistered security.

Interestingly, VolatilityShares, a firm known for leveraged ETFs, has filed for a futures-based Solana ETF. This filing is seen as unconventional because Solana futures currently don’t exist. Despite this, VolatilityShares has a successful track record with leveraged ETFs, including its popular 2x Bitcoin ETF.

Solana’s increasing popularity, driven by its substantial market cap and the growth of its decentralized exchange (DEX) protocols, further fuels optimism about potential investor interest in a Solana ETF. Solana’s market cap is over $90 billion, placing it as the sixth-largest cryptocurrency. Its DEXs, like Raydium and Orca, are seeing substantial volumes, which boosts the outlook for a potential ETF.

As more institutional investors embrace Ethereum ETFs—having attracted over $2.68 billion in inflows—there is growing confidence that a similar trend could emerge for Solana.