Solana (SOL) has experienced a sharp decline, dropping more than 7% and falling below $160 on February 24, marking its lowest level this year. At that time, it traded at $158.46, a dip not seen since October 2024 when it closed at $159.64. As of now, Solana’s price remains stuck around $159, struggling to regain ground.
Over the last 24 hours, Solana has decreased by 6.9%, and in the past week, the token has fallen by nearly 13%. The losses over the past month are even more significant, with Solana dropping more than 35% from its previous price levels.
This drop has had a notable impact on Solana’s market capitalization, which currently stands at $78 billion. It also has a fully diluted valuation of $95 billion. Despite a brief rebound earlier in February, surpassing the $180 mark, the overall market sentiment around Solana seems to have soured, as concerns about an upcoming event weigh heavily on its price performance.
The primary catalyst for this downturn is the looming unlocking of 11.2 million SOL tokens, which will be released from FTX’s custody on March 1. These tokens, worth approximately $1.77 billion at current prices, have the potential to flood the market with additional supply, putting downward pressure on Solana’s price. The release of such a large number of tokens could influence Solana’s liquidity and price stability, with investors worried about the possibility of a significant drop in price once the unlocking occurs.
The uncertainty surrounding this event has led to increased caution among investors, as reflected in a decrease in Solana’s decentralized exchange (DEX) volume. Data from DeFi Llama indicates a 36.7% drop in Solana’s DEX volume over the past week, with its current weekly volume standing at $16.6 billion. The daily volume has also dropped to $1.5 billion, signaling a slowdown in trading activity.
In response to the market’s uncertainty, some investors are seeing the current price drop as an opportunity to accumulate more Solana, betting on a potential rebound if demand for the token holds steady. However, market participants remain wary of the potential impact of the unlocking event.
On the derivative side, there has been notable activity in Solana options, particularly in put contracts. Amberdata reports that nearly 25% of Solana options activity on the cryptocurrency exchange Deribit last week involved block trades, totaling $32.39 million of the total $130.74 million. This marks the second-largest share of Solana block trades ever recorded, with almost 80% concentrated in put contracts. Put options allow investors to protect themselves from potential downside, which is common during market uncertainty. Whale investors often use these contracts to hedge against volatility, further signaling cautious sentiment around Solana’s future price movements.
With March 1 approaching and the FTX unlocking looming, Solana faces significant challenges, and its price may remain volatile in the short term. Whether the market can absorb the additional supply of tokens or if further declines will occur depends largely on how investors react to the release and the overall demand for Solana in the coming weeks.