Bitcoin’s Breakout to New Highs Could Be Near, Past Market Cycles Suggest

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently navigating a significant correction after peaking at $73,000 in March, leading many to speculate that the market may have already reached its top. However, historical patterns from previous market cycles suggest a potential breakout could be on the horizon.

The current price action bears a striking resemblance to the behavior seen in the 2016 and 2020 bull runs, where corrections ultimately paved the way for new all-time highs later in the year. Analysts believe that if Bitcoin follows a similar trajectory, we could see prices surge dramatically in the coming months.

Despite its recent struggles, Bitcoin remains up an impressive 290% from its November 2022 low, aligning with trends observed in earlier bull markets. For context, BTC saw gains of 309% during the 2015-2018 cycle and 251% from 2018 to 2022 during comparable periods.

Should Bitcoin maintain this historical momentum, it could potentially rise between 600% to 900% from its cycle low, translating to a target price range of $108,000 to $155,000. As the year progresses, market participants will be closely watching to see if these patterns hold true once again.

Typical halving year correction

This year’s corrective phase for Bitcoin (BTC) mirrors the price movements observed during its previous halving years, according to well-known analyst CryptoCon. In both 2016 and 2020, Bitcoin experienced a mid-cycle peak followed by a period of sideways trading before breaking out in the later months of the year.

The Bitcoin halving occurs every four years and reduces the issuance of new tokens by 50%, which is thought to create scarcity and impact supply dynamics. Historical data shows that in 2016, BTC fell over 40% from its June peak before rallying in December, while in 2020, it dipped approximately 21% from an August high, only to reach new all-time highs in late October.

This year, Bitcoin reached a local peak of $73,000 in March before experiencing a decline of around 33% to its early August low. CryptoCon suggests we are nearing the conclusion of this typical mid-cycle correction.

He emphasized that despite various bearish predictions, the current cycle remains on track. “Whether it’s cycle top calls or recession predictions, everyone has a reason why they should fear the worst,” CryptoCon stated. “Meanwhile, the cycle continues right on track, unscathed.” He believes that the real Bitcoin bull run is poised for 2025, reinforcing the notion that current price action may just be a precursor to future gains.