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On Tuesday, traders increased the probability of a second consecutive 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve to 61%. This comes as China joined a growing global trend of monetary easing among major economies.
Bitcoin is eyeing a move above $65,000 for the first time since early August, driven by the momentum from this potential easing cycle. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $64,300, up nearly 2% over the last 24 hours. Analysts suggest that a breakout above the $65,000 mark is essential to confirm a bullish trend.
During U.S. afternoon trading, Bitcoin approached a one-month high as the global shift toward looser monetary policy continued to support the crypto market. However, earlier in the day, the price briefly fell below $63,000 after the Conference Board reported a significant drop in consumer confidence for September, with the index plummeting from 105.6 to 98.7—the largest monthly decline since August 2021. Dana Peterson from the Conference Board noted that consumers’ perceptions of current business conditions turned negative, reflecting growing pessimism about the labor market and future economic conditions.
Despite this bearish news, the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut surged following the report, contributing to Bitcoin’s afternoon rally. Additionally, new figures revealed a notable increase in the U.S. M2 money supply in August, which, alongside easing policies in China and the U.S., fueled Bitcoin’s upward trajectory. Gold also benefited from the news, rising 1.4% to reach a new record high of $2,690 per ounce.
With Bitcoin’s current rise, it is over 10% higher compared to last week, but analysts caution that a true breakout remains unconfirmed while prices linger below the $65,000 threshold. Well-known analyst Will Clemente emphasized the psychological challenge of shifting from a cautious to a more bullish mindset, stating that a confirmed change in market structure above $65,000 would signal a more risk-on approach for traders.
