A recent report by Bernstein suggests that if Donald Trump wins the U.S. election in November, Bitcoin (BTC) could reach new highs, potentially hitting $90,000 by the fourth quarter. In contrast, if Kamala Harris secures the presidency, Bitcoin may drop below its current floor near $50,000, possibly testing the $30,000 to $40,000 range.
The analysis highlights Trump’s commitment to making the U.S. the “bitcoin and crypto capital of the world,” noting his frequent mentions of digital assets in policy speeches. At the Bitcoin Nashville conference in July, Trump outlined ambitious plans, including establishing the U.S. as a bitcoin mining leader, appointing a crypto-friendly SEC chairman, and creating a national strategic bitcoin stockpile.
In contrast, the report points out that Harris has not addressed cryptocurrency in her speeches, which could reflect a less favorable environment for the crypto market under her leadership.
Bernstein’s analysts note that the crypto market has faced two significant challenges over the past three years: macroeconomic factors and regulatory scrutiny. They argue that a positive regulatory environment could reignite innovation and draw users back to blockchain-based financial products.
The report concludes by suggesting that while elections are unpredictable, investors currently holding crypto are essentially making a bet on Trump’s potential victory.