Scott Melker: Bitcoin shows bullish signs, but low volume raises caution flags

Bitcoin is starting to show signs of life, but according to analyst Scott Melker, there are still reasons to stay cautious. On April 18, Melker highlighted that BTC closed above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) for the first time since early February. This move, marked by a solid daily candle, could be an early signal of renewed bullish momentum. At the time of analysis, Bitcoin was holding at $84,349—still slightly above the 50-day SMA at $84,202.

While this is a positive development, it’s not a complete green light just yet. Bitcoin remains below the more dynamic 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), which sits higher at $85,328. The failure to reclaim this level reflects lingering market hesitation.

More concerning is the noticeable drop in trading volume. Despite several attempts to break higher over the past week, momentum hasn’t held up—largely due to weak buyer participation. Melker pointed out that volume on April 17 hovered around 8,000 BTC across major exchanges, a sharp decline from the 26,000 BTC traded just eight days earlier on April 9.

This lack of volume is often a warning sign. It suggests that institutional and large retail investors are still on the sidelines, likely waiting for more clarity in the macroeconomic picture. Recent geopolitical tensions, especially surrounding trade with China and other key partners, have heightened fears of a potential global slowdown. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has maintained a cautious stance, avoiding aggressive easing measures out of concern for rising inflation.

Technically, Bitcoin faces strong resistance around the $85,000 level. This area lines up with the top boundary of a descending channel that’s been in place since the all-time high in January. If BTC fails to break through this zone convincingly—and volume continues to weaken—it could retrace toward the midline of the channel, currently around $75,000.

For now, Bitcoin may be flashing bullish signals, but without stronger conviction from traders, the breakout risks fizzling out.