Solana (SOL) has seen a significant downturn, falling over 50% from its all-time high of $295 reached in January, largely driven by a sharp decline in meme coin trading activity. This drop marks Solana’s worst monthly performance since the FTX collapse in November 2022, with a 38% loss in the past 30 days. Meme coin trading, which had previously been a major contributor to Solana’s on-chain volume, has cooled dramatically. For instance, Pump.fun, a Solana-based memecoin trading platform, has minted 8.1 million tokens, generating $577 million in fees, but the platform’s trading volume has dropped by 94%, from $89.5 million on Feb. 25 to just $5.03 million on Feb. 26. The majority of these tokens have lost 80–90% of their value, further reflecting the overall downturn in the memecoin market.
In addition to the decline in meme coin trading, Solana’s decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem has also suffered, with a significant outflow of capital. Its total value locked (TVL) dropped from $12 billion in mid-January to $7.13 billion by the end of February, marking a loss of $5 billion in less than a month. Raydium, a decentralized exchange supporting memecoin projects on Solana, has seen its TVL decline by 50%. Moreover, Solana’s activity has slowed down overall, with over $500 million being bridged to other networks like Ethereum, Arbitrum, and Sonic.
As of Feb. 26, Solana’s price stands at $142, having dropped 15% in the past week. Bulls are struggling to maintain a support level, with $140 acting as a critical threshold. If SOL fails to hold above this mark, the next major support levels are between $125 and $130, with a further breakdown potentially pushing the token to its lowest price since August 2024.
For Solana to regain bullish momentum, it will need to recover the $150 level and see a resurgence in both TVL and on-chain activity. Until then, the outlook remains uncertain, with continued downside potential. Furthermore, the scheduled 11.2 million token unlock on March 1 could further add downward pressure on SOL. Additionally, the slim chances of a Solana-based ETF being approved soon mean that institutional interest is unlikely to provide immediate support.
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