Bitcoin Dips Below $95K Amid Declining Odds of U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

Bitcoin’s price dipped below $95,000 on Tuesday, continuing a downtrend that began four weeks ago when it reached a record high of $109,200. This retreat coincides with a decline in the likelihood of a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR), which had previously boosted optimism in the market.

A Polymarket poll with over $6.9 million in assets indicated that the chances of U.S. President Donald Trump establishing an SBR within his first 100 days have dropped significantly, from a peak of 40% in January to just 12%. In addition, a Texas-based poll revealed a decline in the likelihood of the Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act being signed this year, with odds falling from over 60% to 38%.

These decreasing probabilities reflect the uncertainty surrounding legislative efforts to establish Bitcoin reserves in various states, including Texas, Wisconsin, Arizona, Florida, Alabama, and Wyoming. The Trump administration has been consulting on the potential creation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, with venture capitalist David Sacks confirming ongoing deliberations.

One of the proposed methods for establishing such a reserve involves using Bitcoin seized by the U.S. government, which currently holds 198,109 BTC (valued at $18 billion), according to BitcoinTreasuries data. A U.S. government SBR could inspire other nations to follow suit. For example, China holds 190,000 BTC, while the UK holds 61,245 BTC. Increased Bitcoin purchases by the government could come at a time when mining difficulty and demand are on the rise, and exchange balances are declining.

Despite the price dip, technical indicators suggest a potential surge for Bitcoin. The daily chart shows BTC holding above the 100-day moving average, and the formation of a megaphone pattern—a bullish indicator—points to a possible breakout. This pattern, coupled with the cup-and-handle and bullish flag formations observed on the weekly chart, suggests that Bitcoin could see a rebound in the coming weeks.