Dogecoin’s Chances of Reaching $1 Diminish, While DOGE ETF Prospects Increase

Dogecoin has been facing a tough time recently, with its price stuck in a prolonged bear market. After hitting a high in December, the coin has seen a significant crash, dropping more than 47%, and as of Thursday, it was trading around $0.255. This price movement reflects broader market conditions, and many investors are cautious about its near-term prospects.

One of the more interesting developments for Dogecoin is the rising likelihood of a spot Dogecoin ETF. According to Polymarket data, the chances of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving such an ETF have jumped from 27% in January to 62% in February. Companies like Rex Osprey and Bitwise have already filed for a Dogecoin ETF, and others may follow. This potential approval could spark a boost in the price of Dogecoin, as ETFs often lead to greater institutional investment and wider exposure to retail investors. It’s a bit of a silver lining for those still hopeful about Dogecoin’s long-term potential.

However, despite the optimism surrounding the ETF, the odds of Dogecoin hitting $1 anytime soon have significantly dropped. According to Kalshi data, the chances of Dogecoin reaching $1 by June 1 have fallen to just 5%, a sharp decline from earlier predictions. In fact, the odds of Dogecoin hitting $1 by January 2026 have fallen from over 60% in November to 19%. This shows how much investor sentiment has shifted as the coin struggles with a lack of momentum.

The key issue right now is Dogecoin’s price action and technical analysis, which paint a bearish picture. The coin remains well below its 50% Fibonacci Retracement point at $0.2825, and technical indicators are signaling more downside. The formation of a death cross pattern—where the short-term 50-day Exponential Moving Average crosses below the 200-day—typically indicates that the bears are in control and more downward pressure could be ahead. Moreover, the break-and-retest pattern at $0.2622 and the bearish flag chart pattern add to the likelihood of a further decline. If Dogecoin were to drop below its current support at $0.20, it could potentially fall to $0.15, which would take it to a critical 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement level.

Despite this bearish outlook, there are some optimistic factors on the horizon. If the spot ETF approval happens and leads to increased interest, that could serve as a catalyst for a recovery in Dogecoin’s price. However, for now, the short-term predictions remain cautious, and the chances of a $1 price point are looking increasingly unlikely in the immediate future.

The question now is whether Dogecoin can overcome its current technical barriers and regain the confidence of investors, especially with more developments surrounding its potential institutional adoption through the ETF. What do you think—will the ETF news be enough to turn things around, or is the market too saturated with bearish signals?