XRP Price Could Drop 65%, According to Wyckoff Theory

XRP has seen a notable downturn this month, transitioning from a strong bull run to a bear market, with a price drop of almost 30% from its January highs. As of now, XRP is hovering around the $2.43 level, having faced a severe crash. Several factors are contributing to the current bearish outlook, including a significant drop in daily trading volume and futures open interest, which has declined from $7.45 billion in January to just $3.45 billion this week. This indicates weakening demand from investors. Additionally, XRP’s daily trading volume has also sharply fallen from over $32 billion to around $4 billion, signaling a slowdown in market activity.

Despite these recent setbacks, there are still some catalysts that could push XRP higher in the future. For instance, Polymarket’s odds of a spot XRP ETF have surged to over 80%, and JPMorgan has projected that spot XRP ETFs could see more than $8 billion in inflows within their first year. In comparison, spot Ethereum ETFs have gathered just $3 billion in inflows, making XRP ETFs potentially a larger investment vehicle. Ripple’s continued partnerships, such as with Unicambio, a Portuguese currency exchange provider, and its recent money transmitter licenses in New York and Texas, further add to the optimism surrounding its growth. Furthermore, Ripple USD has been gaining market share, with daily volumes exceeding $200 million, positioning it above many other stablecoins.

However, the current market situation and the application of Wyckoff Theory present a bearish outlook for XRP in the short term. The Wyckoff Theory, which breaks down market movements into four phases—accumulation, markup, distribution, and markdown—appears to indicate that XRP is in the “distribution” phase, characterized by high volatility and price fluctuations. According to this theory, the next phase could be the “markdown” phase, where the price could drop significantly to the support level around $0.9325, a 61% decline from current levels. This support point coincides with the 78.6% retracement level, making it a key level to watch.

For the bearish outlook to be invalidated, XRP would need to break above the year-to-date high of $3.40, signaling a continuation of the bullish momentum.

Overall, the situation remains fluid. While XRP has strong fundamental backing and the potential for future growth through partnerships and the possibility of a spot ETF, technical indicators like the Wyckoff Theory suggest the potential for further downside if the current bearish trend continues. Investors will need to watch for critical support levels and any signs of a reversal or recovery in demand.