Here’s Why Bitcoin Needs to Break Above $103K to Avoid Bearish Territory

Bitcoin’s price has managed to hold above $90,000, but the cryptocurrency market is facing increasing bearish signals that have traders on edge. According to a report by Matrixport, while Bitcoin is still above the 21-week moving average, which technically keeps it in bullish territory, there are growing signs of a potential downward reversal.

One of the major indicators of this bearish sentiment is the widening of Bitcoin’s lower Bollinger Bands, signaling volatility and potential downward movement. Additionally, the Greed & Fear Index is nearing a historically significant level of 10, which has often marked tradable lows in the past. The 30-day rolling return for Bitcoin is also approaching -10%, a level that has historically slowed or reversed downtrends since late 2022. These signals suggest that while Bitcoin is still holding steady, a potential shift to the downside is increasingly likely.

Matrixport further notes that trading volumes have decreased, and stablecoin minting remains subdued, indicating reduced speculative activity. This is reflected in low funding rates, which align with a cautious market sentiment. Traders are also locking in profits quickly, with Bitcoin’s recent 40% surge over 30 days fitting the pattern of a peak or consolidation phase, seen in previous market cycles.

The analysts point out that if Bitcoin manages to break above $103,000, it could flip the trend back into bullish territory. However, they also caution that the longer Bitcoin remains in its current consolidation phase, the lower the trigger point for a bullish signal will become, increasing the risk of a trend reversal.

Despite these warning signs, the $90,000 level has held firm, likely due to inflows from altcoins into Bitcoin. However, Matrixport notes that the signal line is gradually declining, suggesting that the momentum may be weakening. Nonetheless, Bitcoin’s inherent volatility and its potential for wealth creation continue to attract strategic investors, especially during pullbacks, providing some optimism for future growth.