Illicit Crypto Volume Could Reach $51B in 2024, According to Report

Cryptocurrency-related illicit activity is projected to see a significant rise in 2024, with illicit crypto volumes potentially surpassing $51 billion, according to a recent report by Chainalysis. This marks a troubling trend in the ongoing diversification and growth of crypto crime, with a 25% annual increase in illicit activity since 2020.

The report highlights that, as of now, $40.9 billion in crypto has been linked to illicit addresses. However, historical trends suggest that this figure is likely to grow as more wallet addresses associated with criminal activity are identified. Chainalysis estimates that the actual volume of illicit crypto transactions for 2024 could be closer to $51 billion.

One of the key observations in the report is the professionalization of the crypto crime ecosystem. A rise in large-scale, on-chain services is making it easier for criminals to launder money and engage in other illicit activities. One such example is Huione Guarantee, an online platform that provides laundering-as-a-service and has even launched its own stablecoin, USDH, to evade regulatory oversight.

Another significant development is the growing dominance of stablecoins in illicit transactions, accounting for 63% of all illicit transaction volume. While stablecoins are widely used for legitimate purposes like remittances and cross-border payments, they have also become a preferred tool for illegal activities due to their relative stability and ease of use.

Despite the increase in stablecoin-related crimes, other forms of illicit activity remain prevalent. Ransomware attacks continue to be a significant source of illicit crypto flows, with North Korean hackers responsible for stealing $1.34 billion of the $2.2 billion in stolen crypto in 2024, largely through private key compromises.

Scams have also become increasingly sophisticated, with new AI-driven tactics, such as personalized sextortion schemes, targeting victims. Although activity in darknet markets and fraud shops has declined, ransomware groups remain highly profitable, continuing to earn hundreds of millions of dollars.

Despite ongoing law enforcement efforts—such as the takedown of the Universal Anonymous Payment System—the report notes that these disruptions have not eradicated crypto crime. In fact, experts predict that illicit activity will likely increase as data attribution techniques improve, leading to more accurate tracking of criminal behavior on the blockchain.

While the percentage of illicit activity in relation to the total on-chain volume has decreased to 0.14% in 2024, the actual volume of illicit transactions could still rise significantly as more criminal activities are uncovered.

The projected rise in illicit cryptocurrency activity to $51 billion in 2024 highlights the ongoing challenges facing the crypto industry in combating crime and fraud. While stablecoins are becoming a major tool for illicit transactions, traditional crimes such as ransomware and scams remain persistent issues. As the ecosystem becomes more professionalized and law enforcement faces new challenges, the role of improved data attribution and regulatory measures will be crucial in curbing the growth of crypto-related crime.