Bitcoin ‘Uptober’ in play ahead of US election

Bitcoin’s recent surge toward $65,000, following a slower start to October, could be setting the stage for a historically typical rally, according to QCP Capital. In a recent update shared via their Telegram channel, the crypto trading firm suggested that Bitcoin’s price jump on October 14—which saw it climb by 5.35%—could signal the beginning of a more sustained rally through the second half of the month. This surge has coincided with a broader uptick in the cryptocurrency market, which helped to liquidate nearly $80 million in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) leveraged short positions. This liquidation is seen as easing the bearish sentiment hanging over both BTC and ETH, as well as the wider digital asset space.

QCP Capital’s analysts also pointed out that this price pump is occurring just three weeks before the November U.S. presidential election, which could be a key catalyst for further price movement. They noted that Bitcoin had shown similar patterns in the past, particularly around major political events. For example, BTC doubled in value by January 2017 after a similar price ascent in October 2016, just ahead of the U.S. presidential election that year. During that period, Bitcoin had been range-bound for months before breaking out in anticipation of the regime change in the United States, similar to the current situation.

This historical precedent suggests that Bitcoin’s current price action could be part of a larger trend, where political and macroeconomic uncertainty surrounding U.S. elections tends to spark bullish behavior in the crypto markets. Whether this pattern will hold true this year remains to be seen, but analysts are keeping a close eye on Bitcoin’s next moves as the election approaches.

In 2020, Bitcoin made a dramatic move just weeks before the U.S. presidential election, soaring from around $11,000 to over $42,000 by Q1 2021, nearly tripling in value. This rally has some analysts predicting that history might repeat itself, especially with Bitcoin’s recent momentum. If Bitcoin’s bullish behavior mirrors past cycles after U.S. elections, it could see its value climb to or even surpass $120,000 by early 2025.

A more conservative scenario, where Bitcoin’s price simply doubles, would push its market capitalization well over $2 trillion, marking a major milestone for the leading cryptocurrency. This kind of growth would solidify Bitcoin’s position as a dominant force in the financial markets.

In addition to the potential for a post-election rally, QCP Capital analysts highlighted another factor that could strengthen Bitcoin’s bullish outlook: the ongoing developments surrounding the defunct Mt. Gox exchange. Last week, Mt. Gox updated its creditor repayment plan, delaying its reimbursement deadline to October 2025. This delay could reduce the immediate selling pressure from creditors who had been anticipating repayment, potentially allowing more BTC to remain in circulation or be absorbed by market participants.

Further adding to the bullish narrative, recent trading data suggests that BTC buying activity is helping to counteract selling pressure on digital asset exchanges. This indicates that demand for Bitcoin could remain strong, supporting a sustained upward trajectory.

Taken together, the combination of historical patterns, the upcoming U.S. election, and changes in Mt. Gox’s repayment plan paints a positive outlook for Bitcoin’s price in the near and medium term, with the possibility of a significant price surge over the next few years.

Uptober has been rather disappointing so far with BTC up just +1.2% vs an average of +21%. After months of trading in the range, will history repeat itself? Today’s rally has definitely given the market a glimmer of hope just as Uptober optimism was fading.

QCP Capital