Bitcoin ETF outflows surpass $300m, analysts warn of key price levels

This week, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. experienced outflows exceeding $300 million as global macroeconomic events created uncertainty about short-term trends.

Following a historically bearish September that saw over $1.1 billion in inflows, around $388.4 million was withdrawn from 12 spot Bitcoin ETF funds between October 1 and October 3. This coincided with the escalating Iran-Israel conflict, which pushed Bitcoin’s price down to a weekly low of $60,047.

On October 4, better-than-expected U.S. payroll data provided some relief, enabling Bitcoin to regain the $62,000 level, while ETF products recorded inflows of $25.59 million. However, this recovery was insufficient to completely offset the effects of the prior three-day outflow streak.

Since September 13, three consecutive weeks of inflows had brought approximately $1.91 billion into spot Bitcoin ETFs, but this week’s withdrawals left these funds in negative territory, with a total of $301.54 million flowing out, according to SoSoValue data.

In terms of specific products, Bitwise’s BITB led the last trading day with inflows of $15.29 million. Fidelity’s FBTC saw $13.63 million, while ARK and 21Shares’ ARKB recorded its first inflow this week at $5.29 million. VanEck’s BTCW also brought in $5.29 million. Conversely, Grayscale’s GBTC experienced outflows of $13.91 million.

Additionally, some of the selling pressure in the market can be attributed to Bitcoin miners, who, according to crypto analyst Ali, have offloaded approximately $143 million worth of Bitcoin since September 29.

Selling activity could increase, as noted by analyst Ali in a recent post on X. He highlighted that Bitcoin is currently trading below the realized price for short-term holders, which stands at $63,000. This price reflects the average cost at which short-term investors purchased their Bitcoin. When the market falls below this level, these holders may be more likely to sell to minimize losses, potentially triggering a “cascading sell-off” that could amplify selling pressure.

Ali advised investors to monitor the $63,000 mark as a crucial level that Bitcoin needs to reclaim to avoid further losses.

Conversely, crypto analyst Immortal pointed to a slightly higher short-term target of $64,000. He noted that if Bitcoin can break above this resistance level, it could indicate the start of a significant bullish movement.

Despite the current short-term volatility, experts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects. They cite historical performance in the fourth quarter and the expectation of U.S. rate cuts, which could drive prices toward the $72,000 range.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading just above $62,200, reflecting a decline of over 5% over the past week.

However, market sentiment seems to be improving, with the Fear and Greed Index climbing back to a neutral score of 49, up from a more cautious 41 the day before, according to data from Alternative.