$151M in SUI to Be Unlocked This Week: Will SUI Price Falter?

Sui (SUI) is heading into a significant supply event this week, with 64.19 million SUI tokens, valued at approximately $148.29 million, set to be unlocked on April 1. This upcoming unlock has raised concerns within the market, as the added supply could potentially put downward pressure on the SUI price.

At the moment, Sui’s circulating supply is 3.17 billion SUI tokens, and the unlocking of 64.19 million tokens represents around 2.03% of this supply. However, it’s worth noting that only 31.7% of the maximum total supply of 10 billion SUI has been unlocked thus far, which means that more tokens will be released gradually in the future. This could indicate further potential selling pressure in the coming months if the trend continues.

Despite these concerns, Sui’s decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem has been showing strong activity, with monthly decentralized exchange (DEX) trading volumes reaching $5 billion. Additionally, the stablecoin market capitalization on the Sui blockchain has nearly doubled from $370 million in December 2024 to $628 million by the end of March 2025. However, the total value locked (TVL) in the ecosystem has seen a decline, falling from its peak of $2.08 billion in January to $1.2 billion as of now, which is a sign of reduced capital inflow into the DeFi space on Sui.

Despite the challenges faced by Sui’s ecosystem, the ongoing developments in its platform offer some optimism. For example, Canary Capital’s filing for a SUI-linked exchange-traded fund (ETF) and the blockchain surpassing 100 million total accounts are important milestones that may help improve investor sentiment in the long run. The growth in the number of users and the increasing market interest in Sui-related projects may provide more upside potential in the future, offsetting some of the bearish sentiment triggered by the unlocking event.

From a technical analysis perspective, SUI’s price is currently hovering around the $2.32 mark. The price faces resistance at $2.37, and the next significant levels of resistance are $2.64 and $2.78. On the downside, the closest support level is at $2.23, and a decline to $2.00 is possible if the selling pressure increases after the token unlock.

The technical indicators for SUI suggest a neutral to slightly bearish outlook in the short term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sitting at 44.5, which reflects weak buying interest and suggests that the market is not currently in a strong bullish trend. Additionally, the MACD is still in negative territory, indicating that selling pressure remains dominant. However, the Stochastic RSI is approaching the oversold area, which could signal that SUI is due for a short-term rebound, especially if selling momentum slows.

The price of SUI may experience increased volatility in the short term due to the token unlock. If the market reacts negatively and the price drops to the $2.00 level, it could lead to a period of consolidation. However, if buyers manage to protect the $2.23 support level and sustain upward momentum, the price could test the $2.37 resistance level, and if it breaks through, further gains toward $2.64 may be possible.

Ultimately, while the unlock event and the associated token release may introduce some short-term risks for SUI’s price, the platform’s ecosystem developments, along with its increasing adoption and user base, could provide a strong foundation for recovery. If buying interest increases and positive news continues to support the ecosystem, SUI may overcome the bearish pressure and rise toward higher levels in the coming weeks.